Hurricane Idalia formed Tuesday morning as it entered the Gulf of Mexico where the forecast predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane before striking Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In its 5 a.m. advisory, the NHC said the center of Hurricane Idalia had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and higher gusts located about 370 miles south-southwest of Tampa moving north at 14 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend out 15 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 160 miles.
“Rapid intensification is likely through landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake.
Its projected path has the center making landfall in Florida’s Big Bend part of the Gulf Coast and heading inland between Gainesville and Tallahassee. Forecasters predict it will reach peak sustained winds of 120 mph with gusts up to 150 mph and storm surge that could top 12 feet.
“This is going to be a major hurricane,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis from the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee late Monday. “It’s likely to continue strengthening all the way until impact and it could have catastrophic storm surge in your area.”
DeSantis on Monday expanded his executive order declaring a state of emergency to 46 counties, up from 33 on Saturday. In Central Florida, it now includes Seminole, Lake and Volusia counties, but not Orange or Osceola.
A hurricane warning is in effect along the Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key north to Indian Pass near Apalachicola that includes Tampa Bay as well as for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas and on Florida’s Gulf Coast from Chokoloskee north to Longboat Key as well as west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach on the Panhandle. Tropical storm warnings also remain in effect for Cuba’s Isle of Youth and Florida’s east coast from Sebastian Inlet north to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.
A hurricane watch runs on Florida’s Gulf Coast from Englewood to Longboat Key while a tropical storm watch is in effect for the lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge and on on the Southeast U.S. coast from Altamaha Sound north to South Santee River, South Carolina.
A storm surge warning is in effect for Florida’s Gulf Coast from Englewood north to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay with storm surge watches from Chokoloskee north to Englewood including Charlotte Harbor and on the Atlantic coast from the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to the South Santee River in South Carolina.
Storm surge was the driving force that led to the deadly effects of last year’s Hurricane Ian that made landfall in southwest Florida.
The NHC warned storm surge could hit from 8-12 feet between the Aucilla River near Tallahassee south to the Chassahowitzka River near Homosassa along Florida’s Nature Coast. Surge could hit 6-9 feet south of Chassahowitzka to the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs and north of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River in the Panhandle with lower surge threats in Tampa Bay, Southwest Florida and the Panhandle.
The storm is expected to move quickly over the state, but rainfall totals could still bring 4-8 inches with some areas with as much as 12 inches across ports of Florida’s west coast and the Florida Panhandle as well as southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas that could lead to urban and flash flooding.
Though Metro Orlando is not predicted to bear the storm’s brunt, the signs of a coming storm were clear Monday. Local governments set up sandbag sites, grocery stores stacked bottled water and other supplies, school districts canceled after-school activities, and city and county officials urged residents to make preparations.
Sumter County is under a hurricane warning while Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole and Volusia counties are all under a tropical storm warning.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne said parts of east Central Florida will see 2-3 inches of rain with some pockets hitting 4-5 inches, but also warning tornadoes could begin to form inland starting this afternoon with the threat continuing into Wednesday.
“From midafternoon into tonight, the frequency and strength of outer bands from Hurricane Idalia will increase,” according to the NWS forecast. “The timing of peak impacts will be during this period.”
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