GLOBAL NEWS — Nearly three decades after the end of the Cold War, the international system is experiencing a fundamental realignment. The main issue is the threat to American dominance. Russia and China, both of which are unhappy with the United States’ outsized role in international affairs, are taking the lead. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was the most recent manifestation of this type of uprising. British-American foreign affairs expert Fiona Hill noted that Russia and the “Rest” were using the war as a “proxy for a rebellion against the United States.” As this realignment occurs, Africa is a continent that might potentially attract the attention of great powers. There are at least four factors at play here.
First, it has more voting power than any other regional bloc in the UN General Assembly, accounting for about 28% of all votes. Second, it is rich in raw materials that can be found nowhere else on Earth. Finally, it is home to strategic marine trade routes, especially along the coast of East Africa. Last but not least, the continent’s youth population is rapidly expanding and, by 2030, will make up roughly 42 percent of the world’s total.
As a geopolitics expert, I’ve studied Africa’s commercial linkages to the world’s leading nations. Based on my research, I believe that Africa would be better off remaining neutral than taking a side. The continent of Africa has a sizable voice in the United Nations General Assembly. Sometimes, the continent has trouble reacting in a coordinated fashion. Nevertheless, it has in the past been able to vote unanimously in ways that have had weight. The most famous instance of this was the vote in 1971 in favor of the resolution that eventually replaced Taiwan with mainland China at the United Nations. The tally of yes votes was 76, with 27 coming from African member nations.
Having such a sizable coalition supporting or opposing a country’s position is crucial in the modern United Nations. As a result of the deadlock in the United Nations Security Council due to the veto power of the five permanent members (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), more countries are turning to the UN General Assembly, where each country has a single vote. The votes at the UN General Assembly are mostly symbolic. However, they are an effective moral weapon for any big country and a good barometer of international opinion.
The riches of Africa’s natural resources is another of the continent’s selling points. With the increased emphasis on renewable and nonrenewable alternatives to traditional forms of energy production, this is of paramount relevance. And in the manufacturing of goods fueled by the development of new technologies, such the cobalt mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and used in the fabrication of electronic device screens. It is produced in the DRC at the highest rate of any country on Earth.
As countries seek to diversify away from Russia for natural gas and from fossil fuels generally, Algeria, Angola, and Nigeria’s oil deposits will become increasingly vital. New studies disprove the conventional wisdom that smaller countries need to “pick sides” in polarized global situations; this includes my own study of US-China trade “competition” over Africa. Africa is best served when it trades with the widest possible range of partners.
The evidence presented here suggests that the major contenders are already engaged in unprecedented levels of bilateral commerce. European trade with Russia has continued (and perhaps increased in some ways) despite the conflict in Ukraine. As a result, Africa can remain politically neutral. It cannot, however, afford to choose sides or forgo collaboration. There are no obvious reasons for Africa to take a side in the emerging multipolar order. It’s possible to consider every possibility.
