I hope you’ve been enjoying these amazing conditions we’ve had the last couple of days because it’s incredibly hard to beat this time of year! Starting Thursday, storm chances increase, but they don’t really become very impactful until late Friday and Saturday when our severe chance rolls in.
Thursday
There’s not too much to update you on for Thursday. Technically, our storm chances do come up because we couldn’t buy a shower the last few days if we wanted to. Thursday a weakening low pressure that is currently in the mid-west will roll south of our area and provide just enough moisture along with warmth to pop-up a few storms in the afternoon/evening.
They should end up being very localized and sort of like “popcorn” style storms we see in the summer. Odds are you won’t see much, but if you do it’ll rain hard for a brief period of time.
Friday
The real show starts on Friday…well, sort of. I (Bryce) say sort of because the chance for storms doesn’t even go up until after sunset on Friday. So, if you have plans on Friday that are outdoors and before nighttime, congrats! A warm front rolls through early in the day and that will pick winds up and send temperatures soaring into the low 80s!
This is going to build up storm energy for the afternoon and evening. Luckily for us, storms don’t arrive then, they arrive later. This will help limit our severe chances, but won’t get rid of them. You’ll notice that the SPC has areas mainly along and west of I-65 in a “slight” risk for severe storms Friday night, with the larger “enhanced” risk even further to our west. Why? This is due to storms rolling in during peak heating of the day for areas in the larger risk, when more instability is available.
These storms should somewhat be running out of gas as they’re rolling into our area. There will still be some leftover instability from the afternoon in our area, but not as much as there is to our west. This doesn’t mean we can’t see severe weather, but it’s not as large of a concern as to our west.
Still, some of these storms could pack a punch, with damaging winds being the biggest threat, followed by the low, but non-zero threat for tornadoes.
Saturday
If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, you probably will not end up having those outdoor plans play through unless we can squeeze in dry time. After the overnight and early morning storms move on, we’ll see a brief break in the action through early-mid afternoon. This allows time for the atmosphere to regain more storm energy again. So, by the late afternoon, another wave of storms rolls through.
Again, there should be plenty of instability available for this afternoon wave on Saturday, especially along and east of I-65. This leads to another strong storm chance with the primary threats being damaging winds, followed by large hail, and the non-zero threat for tornadoes.
The SPC still has the “slight” risk out for our area for Saturday afternoon and evening.
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