The holiday season could be the merriest and brightest ever, with American shoppers flocking to stores and clicking online, their purchases expected to top a whopping $1 trillion for the first time.
But along with all that good cheer, a broad cross-section of shoppers also have their eyes on generally rising prices and are on the watch for the best deals. Some, like Justin Sosa and Maria Ortiz, are considering cutting back on what they spend.
The couple traveled last week from Springfield to Westfarms mall to get an early look at what the mall’s stores are offering, not yet ready to jump into buying.
“Everything’s expensive, it’s crazy,” Sosa said. “We’re preparing, not actually shopping, like pulling the trigger type of thing. We’re just seeing what’s out there.”
Sosa and Ortiz said they could cut their holiday spending budget by as much as 15%.
Despite the predictions for a record-breaking year for sales, a separate nationwide survey of about 1,000 consumers found that Americans overall plan to pull back their holiday spending by 10%, from $1,261 to $1,133. But the overall declines in spending are partly being offset by more affluent households intending to open their wallets even wider this holiday season, the survey by real estate consulting firm JLL concluded.
Higher income households earning over $150,000 are boosting their planned spending by 26% to $1,963 from $1,453 a year earlier, while lower-income households, under $50,000 are cutting back deeply to $699, down 24% from $915 a year ago, according to JLL’s survey.
Patrick A. Smith, vice chairman of JLL’s retail brokerage in the New York area, which includes Connecticut, said inflation — the general rise in the cost of goods and services — has clearly shifted consumer behavior.
“The American consumer is focused on value, sales and deals,” Smith said.
The National Retail Federation predicts that American consumers will spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion on holiday shopping, an increase of 3.7% to 4.2%, compared with $973 billion in 2024. Sales in 2024 represented a 4.3% increase from the previous year.
The NRF said it was seeing “really positive behavior and engagement from consumers,” despite economic uncertainty and rising prices. Even so, the growth in year-over-year holiday spending may be slowing. Holiday season sales soared 12.5% in 2021 in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the NRF.
The Connecticut Retail Network, the former Connecticut Retail Merchants Association, did not return multiple calls and emails seeking comment.
Getting a jump on Black Friday
For at least the last three years, retailers at Westfarms have been getting a jump on rolling out sales before Black Friday — the traditional start of the holiday shopping season — and this year is earlier than ever, mall officials said.
Two weeks ago, the first stores started putting out discounts signs — some 30% or more — and the promotions really started ramping up last week.
At Pottery Barn, the home decor and furniture store, store manager Ashley Durdan said she expects holiday shopping to begin in earnest this weekend, a full 12 days before Black Friday.
“People want to get in, get it early, and not have to deal with the crowds so much,” Durdan said. “They have one less thing on their list of things to do. They’ve already got their gifts purchased.”
The tally of holiday sales also may not be fully reflective of purchasing patterns that are well outside the traditional holiday shopping season.
Tami Gomez, who was shopping at Pottery Barn with her daughter, Hailey, 15, last week said she was already half done with her gift buying having started in the summer.
“I like to watch deals,” Tami Gomez, of Waterbury, said. “Black Friday is not the time to shop. You can get better deals throughout the year. I don’t like the whole idea of shopping on Black Friday, It is too chaotic for me. Then a lot of things sell out quick.”
‘I can see it’
Online sales are expected to hit $253.4 billion this holiday season, a 5.3% increase compared with 2024, according to a forecast by Adobe Analytics. But that is below the 8.7% increase registered in 2024 compared with the previous year.
JLL’s Smith said the firm’s research shows that purchases in a store will outpace those online.
“There’s been a lot of talk that online with dominate holiday shopping, but that’s not true,” Smith said. “Our data shows that roughly 63% to 65% of purchases will still happen in-store, with spending consolidating around discount retailers.”
Smith said younger consumers, in particular expect both options, with most shoppers walking into stores more informed, often having done research online, Smith said.
Maureen Meade, who was shopping last week with her friend Joanne Span, said she does look online and in catalogues to get a sense of what she might want to buy. This trip to Westfarms she was taking a look at bathrobes, a gift she intended to purchase for her brother.
“I can see it,” Meade, a Milford resident, said. “I want to know if it is really good. You can’t really tell from online — sizes, colors.”
Absorbing tariff surcharges
Four miles away, in West Hartford Center, clothing store owner Kimberly Moster said she is optimistic about the holiday shopping season.
Moster’s upscale women’s apparel and home decor store — Kimberly Boutique — has been a fixture in the center for years. Moster expects holiday sales to rival last year’s, arguably her best ever. Sales rose about 3% in 2024, compared with the previous year, Moster said.
Moster said she considers the sales increase a good one, considering she has run her store for 21 years.
For the most part, Moster ordered apparel for her store early, securing contracts before tariff surcharges on imported items were added by suppliers. For new orders — mostly on candles, prints and holiday decorations — Moster said she has, so far, been absorbing tariff surcharges, which have come on top of rising wholesale prices.
Last year’s holiday sales increase, Moster said, was largely driven by women needing more clothing for dressing-up occasions.
“Since Covid, people were in sweatpants for so long and now, they’re having to go back to the office and go to parties,” Moster said. “So, when they go to their closet to find things, they’re not there because it’s been so long. And the dress that they wore to the last wedding they went to is so dated and often doesn’t fit.”
Kenneth R. Gosselin can be reached at [email protected].