Supermarket mogul Stew Leonard Jr. has a very hopeful message about Thanksgiving.
“Relax about turkey, relax about inflation,” Leonard said.
While the U.S. Department of Agriculture says turkey production has dropped by 3 percent from 2024 across the nation, Leonard said they will sell 40,000 turkeys a year and there are plenty of them and at reasonable prices.
Leonard ordered 5,000 more of his fresh, all natural turkeys this year from a farm in Pennsylvania because of a huge 25 percent uptick so far in their chef-quality pre-cooked dinners available for pick-up or delivery. The orders are still coming in.
The catered meal box of roasted turkey stuffed with aromatics, various sides, like stuffing, mashed potatoes, and rolls, along with gravy and cranberry sauce is $199 and feeds eight. Customers can customize the meal by choosing additional sides and pies. At $25 per person, that’s a deal, Leonard said.
Leonard said sale of the pre-made dinners has soared in recent years as cooks are “nervous” about cooking a turkey, particularly about it being dry, lacking taste and overall don’t want to do all the work a Thanksgiving meal entails. The catered dinner for eight orders have already gone up 25 percent this year, Leonard said.
“Some people don’t want to waste the time,” Leonard said of cooking a feast. “The only thing we can’t do is get out the extra calories.”
While there’s no denying food prices have increased overall turkey remains the least expensive protein, he said, and typical Thanksgiving sides like mashed potatoes and squash don’t amount to much either, he said.
Some people add a roast or a ham to their tables in addition to turkey, he said. The biggest turkeys go first. Some people afraid they won’t have enough turkey even buy Ovengold roasted turkey by Boar’s Head for $12.99 per pound to supplement, Leonard said.
The price of Stew Leonard turkeys are $2.99 per pound, the same as last year, he said. Leonard said he could sell frozen for $1.99 lb. but those turkeys could have been killed six months earlier and put in a freezer. His fresh turkeys are hormone and antibiotic-free and free range and are bought at the store the week of Thanksgiving.
Leonard said he’s heard various confusing news reports this year that are all over the map about turkey production, but he doesn’t see any issues on the horizon. He said some farms have been hit hard by the bird flu, but they are out west. Leonard has stores in Connecticut in Norwalk, Newington and Danbury.
Scott Vinson, executive vice-president of sales and marketing for Butterball LLC is optimistic about the holiday too. “The good news is there are plenty of turkeys available,” Vinson said. “The turkey industry and retail grocery industry appear to be in really, really good shape. ”
Vinson said Butterball whole turkeys “will should up on more tables than anyone’s in the United States.”
Although he doesn’t get involved with retail pricing, Vinson said. “We would expect turkey prices to be at or below last year.”
A check of supermarket websites shows frozen turkeys are selling for between 49 cents and $1.90 per pound with different stores running various specials in the coming weeks that have not been advertised. Some ShopRite stores, for example, offer a free turkey depending on how much you spend.
What’s the secret to finding the right size turkey?
“Shop early,” Vinson said.
He said, as Leonard did, that turkey is “still one of the most affordable proteins.
During November and December Butterball has a Turkey Talk-Line and texting option for answers to questions about all things turkey and Vinson said two of the most popular questions are, “How long does my turkey take to thaw?” and how big a turkey should I buy?” They also explain many methods for cooking a turkey.
For Connecticut Foodshare, which helps feed the needy in Connecticut, the weeks before Thanksgiving have been more complicated than usual because of the disruption of SNAP benefits brought on by the government shutdown earlier in the month.
Foodshare president and Chief Executive Officer Jacob Jakubowski, said Thanksgiving is usually the focus in November, but the SNAP crisis moved into number one priority as lines at mobile pantry sights doubled and tripled and food pantries saw demand soar.
The 43-day government shutdown ended Nov, 12,
“These last couple of weeks among the hardest we’ve had,” with the situation regarding benefits changing so often, sometimes hourly, Jakubowski said. ” It’s been brutal trying to keep up with the changes.”
But Jakubowski said thanks to still ongoing generous donations from the public and because of Gov. Ned Lamont restoring SNAP benefits before the federal government reopened, it looks like the agency will be able to give “at least 40,000 meals to people across Connecticut,” including turkey and sides. They serve 500 food pantries in the state and 110 mobile sites.
They are still collecting turkeys and other foods at places and times listed on their website. Volunteers will also be collecting food outside of grocery stores this week,
Much of their stock was depleted during the SNAP crisis, he said. Monetary donations of any size, also through the website, are also welcome and appreciated because they have more buying power through ordering truck loads of food.
“People have been very generous through the SNAP crisis,” Jakubowski said. “This Thanksgiving is going to feel very different. Thanksgiving is an important meal, but it’s one meal.”
While the American Farm Bureau Federation reports, “over the last three decades, U.S. turkey production has steadily declined, and “demand has only ticked down slightly, leading to tighter supplies and increased prices paid to farmers, ” its analysis found “there will be enough birds to meet consumer demand and Thanksgiving specials are likely to be offered by retailers.”
The foundation also reported,“It’s important to remember prices are still 32% lower than just three years ago,” citing remarks by AFBF Economist Bernt Nelson. “Diseases such as HPAI and AMPV are devastating flocks. Meanwhile, poultry farmers also grapple with the broader economic challenges impacting the agricultural economy. These production challenges shouldn’t have any impact on consumers’ ability to get turkey, but they may translate to higher retail prices this holiday season.”
In terms of turkey production, the top six states produce 68 percent of the turkeys in the United States during 2025, according to the USDA. “The largest turkey producing state is Minnesota, at 32.0 million turkeys, unchanged from the previous year. North Carolina produced 28.0 million turkeys, up 4 percent from a year ago. Arkansas produced 22.0 million turkeys, down 12 percent from last year. Indiana produced 20.0 million turkeys, unchanged from last year. Missouri produced 15.0 million turkeys, down 3 percent from last year. Virginia is down 2 percent from the previous year at 15.0 million turkeys,” the agency reports.
Larger turkey-producing states also have been hit hard in the past couple of months. Nearly 2 million turkeys have been affected by bird flu across the country since August, accounting for roughly 24% of all new cases in commercial and backyard flocks, even though turkeys only account for approximately 2% of the U.S. poultry inventory, the Associated Press reported.
According to experts, the disease — combined with a drop of almost 10% in turkey meat production from last year, rising labor costs and lower overall consumer demand throughout the year — is triggering higher prices for wholesale and fresh turkeys just ahead of the holiday season. Frozen turkeys are not likely to be as affected, the Associated Press reported.